Ecommerce has crept up to a big milestone. Online sales now account for 16.3% of all retail in the United States, according to the most recent statistics from the U.S. Census Bureau. That figure may ring a bell—she’s the same percentage ecommerce temporarily accounted for in 2020, at the peak of the COVID-19 lockdowns.
But though the figure is the same, the context couldn’t be further apart.
From Pandemic Spike to Sustainable Growth
Earlier in 2020, ecommerce retail penetration grew nearly overnight. Brick-and-mortar stores were closed, supply chains were disrupted, and consumers made do with online commerce. The acceleration to 16%+ was not so much a measure of market maturity as much as a response to crisis circumstances.
As lockdowns were relaxed, that surge dissipated. Consumers went back to physical stores, and the ecommerce percentage dipped below its record. People wondered if online shopping had reached its peak.
Flash forward five years, and ecommerce is again at 16.3%. The twist? This time it isn’t being driven by lockdowns or panic shopping. It’s a result of steady, gradual growth fueled by consumer preference and convenience.
Retail Growth on Both Sides
One frequently underreported area is the dramatic expansion in the retail industry in general. U.S. retail sales in 2018 were around $5.25 trillion and increased to $7.38 trillion by the year 2024.
Both online and offline sales channels are growing, though their growth trajectories vary. Ecommerce is growing steadily, adding around one percentage point of market share annually. In contrast, physical retail is holding up, transforming through omnichannel strategies, experiential shopping, and hybrid models that merge online and in-store experiences.
The notion of physical stores dwindling is contradicted by evidence. Rather, the retail landscape is one of equal growth where online and offline channels complement and exist alongside one another.
Retail Growth on Both Sides
Another fact that is often neglected is that the pie of retail itself expanded massively. The U.S. retail sales in 2018 amounted to about $5.25 trillion. By 2024, it ballooned to $7.38 trillion.
That translates to both online and off-line channels growing—just in different ways. Ecommerce continues to grow at a steady pace, adding roughly one percentage point of market share each year. Physical retail is standing its ground, innovating by way of omnichannel strategies, experience shopping, and hybrid models that integrate online with in-store.
The narrative that “stores are dying” simply fails to apply to reality. Instead, what we see is instead an even-keeled evolution in which digital and physical retail coexist and complement each other.
What This Means for Businesses
For sellers, retailers, and brands, the new milestone has some important lessons for them:
Don’t expect gigantic, overnight growth.
The huge jump during the pandemic was an exception. Now, it’s progressing slower but steadily.
Focus on long-term fundamentals.
Current customers need convenient shopping, personalized experiences, and seamless service—not low prices.
Tap all available channels of sales.
Bricks-and-mortar stores aren’t going away; they’re complementing online shopping. Examples of features that are doing this well include picking up products from the store or applying in-store advertisements.
Build a strong, adaptive business.
The businesses that thrive will be the ones that can adapt to the times and continue to scale regardless of what is happening outwardly.
The Big Picture
Ecommerce’s return to 16.3% isn’t about reliving history—it’s about reframing the future. In contrast to 2020’s pandemic peak, today’s milestone is evidence of genuine maturity in consumer culture. Online shopping is not an emergency solution; it’s a habitual part of everyday life.
That makes this milestone enormously more meaningful than the pandemic peak. It’s evidence that ecommerce has cemented its role as a stable, core part of the retail landscape.
The challenge now is to get firms to quit chasing short-term spikes and, instead, make a commitment to creating long-term growth strategies—ones that leverage digital innovation combined with the long-term strengths of bricks-and-mortar retail.
